Archive for the ‘Economics’ Category

Describe and Search: a new Paradigm for Innovation

Wednesday, January 12th, 2011

What’s Describe and Search (DAS)?

Within the problem solving aspect of innovation there is a paradigm shift on the horizon.  The old paradigm is DAT (Define and Try).  This refers to the traditional approach of relying on strictly internal research and development solutions, where researchers and engineers quickly define their problem and then try to figure out a solution themselves and with their closer team-members. We think this approach is inherently less efficient than what can be called DAS (Describe and Search). Here’s why:

A typical roadblock for problem solving is lack of information. There are two ways to obtain information: producing it or finding it. That you lack a piece of information doesn’t imply that it doesn’t exist and has to be produced. In most cases, a lack of information is in fact a lack of access. In many cases we’ve assimilated this reality, as when we run a web-search to figure out the answer to a question.

For challenging Research and Development (R&D) problems, it is more difficult to obtain solution-information. However, the fact that it’s harder to find doesn’t mean that nobody has the relevant solution-information and that it’s best for the problem-owner (the person “having” the problem) to go into a resource-consuming information-production mode in order to solve it, for example by conducting experiments in the lab. Given the likely existence of the solution somewhere, this would be grossly inefficient. And yet, it happens a lot all the same.

Systematic patent and publication research is a first step to avoid reinventing the wheel. But the fact that it doesn’t work, doesn’t mean there’s no solution.  In many cases, solutions are, what you could call “embodied” in a strong sense: there is no searchable trace of the solution’s existence (no publications or patents), however somebody knows how to get to the solution relatively fast if only you get your problem in front of them. Finding those people has become much easier  with growth of the social internet.

How do you find the right person to solve your problem?

There are listing-and-community-approaches (broadcasting problems to a large enough community or acquiring lists of experts), solver-and-expert-identification technologies, and mixed approaches that combine advanced solver-and-expert-identification technologies with listings and community building like hypios. These services make it much easier to get your problem in front of the right solver, and as the tools progress, Describe-And-Search (DAS) becomes more and more attractive.

It’s important to understand that we are not talking about replacing all internal (or closed) problem solving by external (or open) problem solving, but about making it part of the standard procedures for all complex R&D challenges to search for existing solutions (inside and outside) and expert Solvers before going into solving mode yourself.

I recently spoke with a rep from a large innovation consulting agency who works a lot with SMEs. He told me that most of the 1500 specialist R&D intensive firms they were working with accepted as a proof of the non-existence of a solution that a large multinational company asks them to develop this solution, i.e. they assume that the large multinational company must have done the solution search before asking them to develop it. But this is wrong. We’ve had several cases where large multinational companies posted problems on hypios and got multiple workable solutions (that had pre-existed) in a matter of months. Why has DAT been predominant (An Error Theory)? So why do many companies still lack a culture of solution search? There are certainly multiple reasons for this. The first reason is that in an environment where research meant closed research, companies didn’t need rigorous ways to distinguish between mildly confidential and non-confidential problems (only what was highly confidential had to be clear). So people are insecure about what problems they can share with potential external solvers (even anonymously). The second reason is probably that finding experts or solutions used to be much more difficult until very recently, especially for non-academic experts, who don’t publish. It’s only recently, that tools like hypios’ have been developed, and make expert-search widely available, quick and efficient. Before deciding to launch the BioMass Challenge, DownEast had worked with different consultants for about two years and had not been able to find a satisfactory solution. For the challenge, hypios’ Solver Surfer technology analyzed several millions of websites, identifying several thousand potential experts, hundreds of which reviewed the problem, which lead to a first round of solutions, ten of which are now under close scrutiny. As the little scheme above shows the rationale for DAT goes down as the tools for Solution Search progress, and the companies that are able to integrate these tools in their innovation processes quickly will find faster, and cheaper ways to innovate. — This article is related to a far more extensive publication entiteled “Overcoming Cognitive and Cultural Resistances in Open Problem-Solving” that is going to be published in A Guide to Open Innovation and Crowdsourcing (edited by Paul Sloane). If you’d like to know more about expert-identification technologies, get in touch with us at info@hypios.com

Pharma Gets Pre-Competitive

Wednesday, August 18th, 2010
PET scan of a human brain with Alzheimer's disease
Image via Wikipedia

Recently, we wrote a two-post series on the state of “openness” in pharma research.  The second post focused on the use of front-end data sharing as a means to advance stalled R&D.  The argument was that such pre-competitive collobarations in no way marked a change of posture for the hyper-competitive pharma industry.

As Klaus-Peter Speidel put it on an earlier Thinking post, competition is a special form of collaboration.  And reciprocally collaboration is also a competitive strategy.

Failing to register this, readers commenting on a recent NYTimes article that focused on how “rare sharing of data” led to progress in Alzheimer’s research, rather prematurely celebrated the victory of “selfless” collaboration.  Others, more sober, were quick to note that the instance of pre-competitive collaboration (PCC) described in Kolata’s article was an example of a smart business deal–and not the crumbling of IP rights in the domain of human health.

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Power of the Purse: On the “leverage effect” in prize competitions

Thursday, July 8th, 2010

A different kind of leverage

Prize competitions were the preferred method for achieving disruptive innovation in the early days of the scientific age exactly because they managed to motivate intense efforts around a single goal. But competitions fell relatively out of favor in the 20th century, overshadowed by the grant model for stimulating research.

Prize competitions are best viewed as mechanisms that achieve aspirational but specifiable outcomes (e.g. we need a novel way of doing X without using Y). They neither reward lifetime achievement (with honor prizes, e.g Nobel Prizes) nor hedge risk by investing in a portfolio of promising approaches (as grant programs do in order to maximize the chances of achieving the desired solution). Nor do they follow the unhedged strategy typical of academia or university-private sector partnerships, which is to invest funds in a limited portfolio.

What sets the prize competition apart from grants and honors as a solution-generating mechanism is that the risk is effectively shifted from the sponsors of the prize to the participants. The prize competition’s purse is not intended to fund the research and development of a novel approach. Instead, the funding serves as a market signal, spurring investments by competition participants. The puzzle of the prize competition is why or under what specifiable conditions participants are willing to shoulder the risk.

Read the rest of this hypios white paper on the special properties of prize competitions here.

Photo by Maurice Koop via Flickr.

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The Next Industrial Revolution?: Wired vs. Gizmodo

Friday, February 12th, 2010

Open Source Hardware: Industrial Revolution or DIY craft fair?

The Debate: In “Atoms Are the New Bits,” Wired magazine’s Chris Anderson announces the next Industrial Revolution: let’s call it “open-source hardware.”  In a sprited rebuttal, “Atoms Are Not Bits; Wired Is Not A Business Magazine,” Gizmodo’s Joel Johnson says Anderson is peering through a glass, darkly (or else sniffing glue).  The revolution he breathlessly describes is called outsourcing, Johnson argues, and there’s nothing new about that.

The Arguments: Wired contends a new industrial revolution is in the works as open source design meets open source hardware.  Hackable, modular components can be used to create innovative products and pave the way to a ‘glocal’ model of micro-manufacturing.  Low-cost prototyping and tool access open the field to potential ’small-batch’ entrepreneurs.  The increasing willingness of global suppliers to woo small-batch production (and take credit cards) makes such business models possible on an unprecedented scale.  Innovative designers in consumer electronics (CE) and beyond face fewer barriers to entry than ever before.  Expect a deluge of upstart design firms, Wired says, with “virtual” manufacturing facilities; this is the future of “US” manufacturing.

Gizmodo, however, argues that it is the present of “US” manufacturing—it’s called outsourcing.  Western designers effectively brand Chinese conglomerates.  You can find the material analogs of these “virtual” factories in smoggy China, with workers hunched over baseboards.  If there’s anything remarkable in this story, thank FedEx, which has found a way to ship small orders incredibly cheap.  And if there’s anything new about the phenomena Wired presents as signs of the next IR, it’s hardly on a revolutionary scale.  Dippy DIYers and hobbyists starting small-run production of niche products by using new tools does not a revolution make.

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Massively Collaborative Mathematics: lessons from polymath1

Wednesday, January 13th, 2010

science news.org

Context: About a year ago, on January 27th, 2009, Fields Medalist Tim Gowers, asked a provocative question on his blog:  “Is something like massively collaborative mathematics possible?” Is it possible to sove a difficult mathematics problem collectively following the principles of distributed computing (everyone pitches in a little to arrive at a result that seemed out of reach for the invidual)?  Gowers took an experimental approach to his own question.  He decided to try to find an elusive (elementary) proof for a famous and high-impact mathematics theorem using - simply enough - the comments section of his Wordpress blog. Joining him in the quest was fellow Fields medalist Terence Tao.

The Problem: Gowers was seeking a combinatorial proof of the density Hales-Jewett theorem (DHJ).  H-J is usually explained with reference to a tic-tac-toe game (played in multiple dimensions). To get the gist of it, visualize such a game played in multiple dimensions with multiple sets of squares. Then ask yourself how many squares you would have to block off to prevent the other player from winning? Using this image of the game, DHJ states that the more dimensions you have, the more squares you would have to block off. Fascinating in its own right, the theorem rests in a pretty active mathematical space, so work on the problem would likely have a larger-than-average effect.

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The future of search, Part 2: Semantic search

Monday, December 7th, 2009

Semantic Cube

Semantics and the future of search
In Part I of our two-part “Thinking about the future of search” series, we discussed the social recommendation side of the future of search.  Here, we’ll explore the possibilities of semantic search.

At hypios, we’re really excited about the semantic web—we think it’s the most important thing for the future of knowledge management and identification of solvers. And obviously knowledge-management is essential for hypios. We think that data will eventually be structured, machine-readable, and linked, vastly improving search.  Engines will return better (more relevant, more specific) results in an easier-to-read format.

Meaning and context
Search depends on meaning, and meaning depends on context.  Getting good search results depends a lot on our ability to define our terms and specify a certain meaning.  Right now, we have to put in more keywords and use a common vocabulary; in the future, we might see:

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The Competition Effect: When is Competition Demotivating?

Thursday, December 3rd, 2009

Competition and Innovation:  A Paradox

A few weeks ago, while writing about Dan Pink’s great talk, we introduced a puzzle…and, well, we’re still thinking about it. Of course we’re not alone; the link between competition and innovation keeps a lot of economists (and organizational psychologists) busy—especially since innovation and competition don’t seem to go hand-in-hand in the way that many would expect.

In Pink’s talk, for instance, he discusses the surprising finding that creative thinking seems to be allergic to pay-for-performance type incentives (and by extension, we argued, competition).

From playing with Legos to investment policies: intuitions on competition

This struck us as intuitively right. Who wants to be distracted by the prospect of failure or ranking when solving a challenging problem? Think about the way kids are absorbed in play. Think about yourself playing Legos as a kid. Now imagine your performance at Legos if your mom offered to pay for the best construction after 45 minutes of “play.” The pleasure of total absorption in building something would have been lost.

It turns out that the dominant investment strategies for firms display a similiar aversion to competition.  There is an observed negative impact on innovation in highly competitive fields, since investments seem more risky in these contexts (this effect is mitigated slightly in the case where two firms are running “neck and neck”).  This means fewer firms enter a crowded field, and overall investments (viz., innovation) tend to be lower.

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Is Twitter a Ponzi scheme?

Wednesday, November 18th, 2009

I recently came across a presentation on Slideshare that —even if very simplistic— formalized something I have been thinking about for a few weeks: could Twitter be a kind of unintentional, original and refined Ponzi scheme in the domain of marketing? A giant pyramid that will topple if more bricks aren’t added every day?

Disclaimer: We love Twitter
We use it every day. We get a lot of interesting information from it, we have many followers, we follow many people, we made some interesting contacts on it, but…

But…Twitter isn’t that good

Sure, Twitter is a good product.  The application interface is accessible and wide open. It’s a real-time social bookmarking tool that’s original in terms of virality and network recommendation. This stream fits with some people’s needs to organize content. But honestly, it’s not that good. Following too many people (something that we, @hypios, admittedly do, as we follow pretty much everyone who follows us) makes the stream change so quickly that it’s impossible to really ‘follow.’ Follow fewer people, though, and it gets boring; you’ll just see the same excessive twitterers on your network.

Then there’s the functionality. I won’t go too far into that, but  it’s maddening that there’s no ’select all and delete’ option for the 200 daily automated direct messages you’ll get (which are not at all distinguished, by the way, from the real ones).  You have to click on every single one of them. “Delete all” a feature that you have with every simple email account. I’ll stop here, but to reiterate, it’s not that good.

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Why Project 10^100 won't be a disaster

Thursday, November 5th, 2009

Last fall, Google launched Project 10^100, a call for ideas that would change the world by helping as many people as possible.  Google will choose 5 winning ideas (to be announced shortly) and has pledged $10 million US towards their implementation.  While the design of the contest isn’t very innovative—Google is essentially passing around a suggestion box, and the rewards are traditional grant-style funding—the company seems to have learned from previous crowdsourcing disasters. Here’s what they’ve done right (and what every company tempted to let the people decide should keep in mind) and what they haven’t:

1. Appeal to principles.
The project asks how the world could be changed by helping people. The 10^100 website is well-designed, with an appealing video.  It seems like this project is important, not just something a marketing department was too lazy to do and left up to the public.

Normally, when asked its opinion, the crowd likes to see the mighty fall.  If we’re not members of the community affected by a vote, for example the caring users of a product that we vote about, we have very little incentive to make the right choice.  When Time magazine put its Most Influential Person of 2009 up to an Internet vote, for example, the crowd chose the founder of 4chan, the forum where memes are born and productivity goes to die.  (The crowd in question was made up mostly of forum posters, who were later accused of hacking the vote, not magazine readers.)  Not only did Time have to honor what it called a “stunning result,” it had to acknowledge the influence of the forum that a 2008 Time article, quoting Star Wars, referred to as “a wretched hive of scum and villainy.”

Google isn’t using the crowd’s ideas for a new ad campaign or its own website, but for charity.  Project 10^100 appeals to people’s altruism, not their desire to make themselves heard.  If you submit silly ideas, that is, you’re not hurting Google, you’re hurting the starving children of the world.

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Motivating Creativity: Incentives and Innovation

Thursday, October 22nd, 2009

Dysfunctional Incentives?

Former Al Gore speechwriter turned business-world bestseller, Dan Pink recently gave an excellent 19 minutes talk at TED2009.   (For those of you not familiar with TED, hasten to their website—it offers an extensive video archive of important contemporary thinkers on technology, design and innovation).

In this talk, Pink tells us that most of our ideas about what motivates performance are wrong—or at least not well-adapted to important tasks of our times. His main point: our beliefs about incentives come from attempts to motivate tasks that we no longer do.

The mechanical, rule-following tasks of the 20th century have been replaced by those requiring open-ended, creative thinking.  For creative tasks, contingent incentives (if you do X, you will get Y), have a negative impact on performance.

Correlatively, studies show a negative effect with the addition of a competitive element to a “task environment”.  A contingent-reward structure often involves setting a solver against his or her peers performing similiar tasks (only some of them will get Y for doing X).

Pink highlights two studies which clarify the interdependence of contingent reward and competition.  In one experiment, participants are asked to complete a challenging cognitive task, i.e. to solve it, participants need to operate what can be called a change of a perspective, (“the candle problem”). They are divided into two groups.  One group is told that their work will be used to set a “norm” or performance median.  The other group is told that they will be timed and rewarded according to their performance (relative to their peers).  Not only did the norm-setting group do better at their task than the pay-for-performance group, but the more that was on the line (in terms of reward), the worse participants performed the task.  When the task was slightly changed, implying less creativity and more mechanical behavior (what Pink calls “the candle problem for dummies”) contingent incentives do work.  Study after study appear to corroborate this evidence.

Pink does not spend too much time speculating on why contingent rewards would have this effect.  Instead he uses his time to discuss the lessons we ought to learn from this research: pay incentives don’t work when tasks are cognitively challenging;  people do better in less competitive, more autonomous environments. So whereas payment is the best incentive for mechanical tasks like those performed on mturk, payment alone would not seem the best motivation for more complex tasks like those performed on hypios. There has to be some intrinsic motivation: Solvers have to  feel like solving problems “for their own sake” is rewarding.

I think Pink is largely right.  In fact, the work environment he describes, ROWE (results-only work environment)—which allows for relative work autonomy—is what we’ve adopted here at hypios.  What I’d like to do here is to speculate a little about why solvers might have reacted in the way that they did in the experiments and try to show that we shouldn’t be too quick to draw conclusions about the efficacy of either financial incentives or competition in general.

The Creativity Jam

Pink focuses on what he calls contingent incentives.  Studies that Pink cites show that an incentive tied directly to the outcome of a single (timed) task cause worse performance for cognitive tasks.

Studies have also found that setting specific and difficult goals significantly increases solver performance even when the goals are out of reach.  These same studies have found that, in the context of these specific and difficult goals, adding competition hurts performance when competition comes in the form of measurement against peers in view of reward.  Correlatively, studies have shown that cooperative environments were superior to competive ones for enhancing task performance.

So it appears that competition and contingent reward work together to jam creative thought, at least under conditions where the reward was directly tied to the performance of a specific task.  You might say that together they seem to create a virtual axe over your head, which is counter productive to creative results. Working in an autonomous environment where you set your own specific goals is most conducive to them.  What none of these studies have shown (and they acknowledge this) is what happens when competition and incentives are on the horizon of an activity rather than directly tied to it.

Challenging Pink:  Not all competition is zero-sum

If Pink is right, why do prize competitions—competitions that involve pay for winning performance—like the Netflix prize seem to work so well as creative-solution generators?  Does offering payment for solution (as hypios does) discourage or “de-motivate” solvers?  Can’t a little friendly competition (against a rival institution, say) be an added driver (even if it may not be as important as collaboration with peers)?

Pink is surely right when he says that intrinsic motivation (say, finding a task interesting) is more important than most anything else when it comes to the performance of high-level cognitive tasks.  But it is hard to imagine an intrinsically motivating task withdrawn from a horizon of competition and reward.  What makes it worth doing is exactly what makes it valuable to others.  There will always be rewards (in the form of glory and gold) and competition for any genuinely worthwhile task.  And people often (though by no means exclusively) get clues about what tasks are worthwhile from the array of incentives that surround a given task-environment.  How can we put these sorts of intuitions together with the finding that Pink highlights in his talk?

Just as in economic theory, the price of something is thought of as a signal sending a message to a consumer or producer: financial incentives send messages that something has value for a seeker and even for a society as a whole.  As such they focus attention on certain types of problems, issues, tasks, marking certian ones as valuable.  Indeed, the X Prize foundation, which runs prize competitions with purses exceeding 1o million USD, uses these large sums to counteract what they see as a market failure, to signal attention to a series of goals that they see as undervalorized (by the market) but that they have identified as key for social advanacement.  If there is only one winner, this does not seem to discourage pariticpants nor limit personal investment in pursuit of the prize.

The Ansari X prize, promoting civilian space travel, had dozens of participants investing millions of their own funds in pursuit of the goal.  This is because the competition is not viewed as a zero-sum game.  Competitors gain from the competition in terms of early entry into a promising market, experience and technology exposure.  Here the award money structures the horizon, but is not linked to strategy development nor to the completion of individual tasks.  How a solver gets to the winning solution is set by that solver or team, and not prescribed by a carrot-wielding outsider with a stopwatch.

Now let’s think a little more about competition.  Is collaboration really the only game in town?  I would say (and for reasons that Pink is willing to call “ideological” and “lazy”) collaboration has traditionally gotten short shrift.  But, there’s evidence from studies of  organizational competition that show that organizations that are “neck to neck’” spur innovation.   In the Netflix competition we saw two teams—agglomerations of single players and smaller teams—that were, in the end, competing neck-and-neck.  Neither the competitive element nor the prize money ($1 million) seemed to create a dysfunctional task environment among the leaders.

Let me offer a  reason why.   Netflix created something called a leaderboard, which showed the performance of all pariticpants and thus allowed participants to gauge their performance against their peers in relative “real time.”  In the cited studies (and in many real “task environments”) participants are in the dark about others’ performance, causing them to feel a loss of control and autonomy with respect to their task.

In the Netflix case, the reward was tied to a specific and challenging goal (10% increase in the quality of the algorithm) and contest rules made it so that teams were given time to match or catch up with the winning team.  Basically, this mimics the information that rival firms would get about their competition in a more or less free market.  Now it’s important to not generalize (as I’ve been doing) too quickly between the response of  individuals and teams in a task environment.  This deserves much more study.

Pink points us towards some very important insights into the nature of motivation.  Financial incentives not only cannot replace intrinsic motivation, they can acutally inhibit it.  Intrinsic motivation, which comes from internal values and goals matching external problems and tasks, is decreased when factors of reward and punishment change the task environment and make the participant feel like they are no longer in control of the situation.  With the solver in control, goal, guts, glory and gold all factor into what challenges he or she will take up.  Watch Pink’s video (if you feel motivated to do so) and then let us know your thoughts. We promise, we won’t pay you for it ;-)

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